Analysts predict drilling to drop 20% in '09, expect curtailed Canada, LNG imports

摘要

The US exploration-and-production sector will likely cut its drilling activity by at least 20% next year, assuming an $8/MMBtu price environment, according to analysts with The Gerdes Group. Such a cut "seems necessary to align E&P industry cash generation [and] capital spending," they said.rnAs a result, US supply growth in 2009 should slow to about a third of the growth experienced this year, even assuming a further 7.5% jump in well productivity.rnFurther productivity strength appears likely in 2009, as onshore well/rig productivity this year appears on track to grow 15% over 2007, thanks both to greater capital efficiency in new resource plays and increased onshore drilling rig efficiency due to replacement of older rigs with newer ones, the analysts noted.