Forecasting the fiber penetration based on copper access regulation

摘要

Purpose - This paper aims to investigate the impact of copper access regulation on broadband household adoption for each technology (xDSL on copper infrastructure, FTTx on fiber infrastructure and cable modem). It provides a forecast of the penetration rate of broadband access for each technology (copper xDSL, fiber, FTTx and cable modem) through 2020. Design/methodology/approach - This paper uses an empirical approach using a dataset covering 15 European countries. The dynamic of the adoption path is modeled by a logistic function. Copper access regulation is measured by two variables: copper access charge and copper wholesale access share, i.e. the ratio of copper wholesale access provided by the incumbent to alternative operators out of the total number of copper accesses. Findings - This paper shows that tough copper access regulation has a negative impact on fiber and cable modem adoption. Low copper prices decrease consumer adoption of other technologies. This reduces their profitability and thus the incentives to invest in alternative platforms. Practical implications - This paper highlights that an increase in copper access charges or a decrease in copper wholesale access shares could help to achieve the objectives of the Digital Agenda for Europe. Originality/value - This paper provides an empirical evidence of the impact of the copper access regulation on the fiber and ultra-fast broadband adoption from a dynamic point of view.