An Outlook for Introduction of Nuclear Power Generation in Southeast Asian Countries

摘要

Several Southeast Asian nations such as Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, or Vietnam are planning to introduce nuclear power generation eying generally at completion around 2020, under the government initiatives derived in the light of growing electricity demand and the need for securing energy supply. In reality, however, these plans may experience delays by several years or more due to numerous challenges and obstacles each of the above countries has in implementing such plans. Furthermore, if a closer examination is made not just into the energy policies and forecasts as published by these governments but also into their respective politico-economic situations, infrastructure development status as well as social and industrial foundations, it reveals that the situations widely vary among these countries. A general outlook drawn from the above examination and analysis for each of the countries mentioned could be summarized as follows:rn1. In Vietnam and Thailand, where the system for the policy implementation is well prepared, nuclear power projects will likely make progress relatively smoothly albeit some possible delays.rn2. Concerning the Philippines, although there is a possibility of resuming the nuclear power plant construction that was suspended in the past, it appears that a brisk and prompt development is less likely from the implementation system point of view.rn3. For Malaysia, it is rather unlikely that nuclear power will be introduced at an earlier timing since their immediate necessity to do so is limited.rn4. With respect to Indonesia, it is possible to see substantial delays in implementing the current plans due to an insufficient degree of infrastructure development as well as constraints in investment environment.rnJapanese nuclear power industry, with her abundant business experience and excellent performance records, can play an important role to contribute to nuclear power plans in the Asian countries. At the same time, however, the Japanese industry does not necessarily have overwhelming competitive advantages over the competitors in the other nuclear-advanced countries. A satisfactory G to G relationship including a bilateral nuclear cooperation agreement is regarded as a prerequisite for promoting private sector participation in this field from the policy ground as well as the practicality. In this connection, it is reasonable for Japan for the time being to focus on the current efforts of continuing modest but steady cooperation in such areas as manpower development (capacity building), system design, and information sharing.