Efficient Ranking and Selection for Stochastic Simulation Model Based on Hypothesis Test

摘要

This paper proposes an efficient ranking and selection algorithm for a stochastic simulation model. The proposed algorithm evaluates an uncertainty to assess whether the observed best design is truly optimal, based on hypothesis test. Then, it conservatively allocates additional simulation resources to reduce uncertainty with an intuitive allocation rule in each iteration of a sequential procedure. This conservative allocation provides a high robustness to noise for the algorithm. The results of several experiments demonstrated its improved performance compared to the other algorithms in the literature. The algorithm can be an efficient way to solve optimization problems in real-world systems where significant noise exists.