Optimization of Multi-Ecosystem Model Ensembles to Simulate Vegetation Growth at the Global Scale

摘要

Process-based ecosystem models are increasingly used to simulate the effects of a changing environment on vegetation growth in the past, present, and future. To improve the simulation, the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) and ensemble Bayesian model averaging (EBMA) methods are often used in optimizing the integration of ecosystem model ensemble. These two methods were compared with four other optimization techniques, including genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), cuckoo search (CS), and interior-point method (IPM), to evaluate their efficiency in this article. Here, we focused on eight commonly used ecosystem models to simulate vegetation growth, represented by the growing season leaf area index (LAIgs), collected globally from 2000 to 2014. The performances of the multimodel ensembles and individual models were compared using the satellite-observed LAI products as the reference. Generally, ensemble simulations provide more accurate estimates than individual models. There were significant performance differences among the six tested methods. The IPM ensemble model simulated LAIgs more accurately than the other tested models, as the reduction in the root-mean-square error was 84.99% higher than the MME results and 61.50% higher than the EBMA results. Thus, IPM optimization can reproduce LAIgs trends accurately for 91.62% of the global vegetated area, which is double the area of the results from MME. Furthermore, the contributions and uncertainties of the individual models in the final simulated IPM LAIgs changes indicated that the best individual model (CABLE) showed the greatest area fraction for the maximum IPM weight (32.49%), especially in the low-lalitude to midlatitude areas.