Exploring spatial non-stationarity of fisheries survey data using geographically weighted regression (GWR): an example from the Northwest Atlantic

摘要

Analyses of fisheries data have traditionally been performed under the implicit assumption that ecological relationships do not vary within management areas (i.e. assuming spatially stationary processes). We question this assumption using a local modelling technique, geographically weighted regression (GWR), not previously used in fisheries analyses. Outputs of GWR are compared with those of global logistic regression and generalized additive models (GAMs) in predicting the distribution of northern cod off Newfoundland, Canada, based on environmental (temperature and distance from shore) and biological factors (snow crab and northern shrimp) from 2001. Results from the GWR models explained significantly more variability than the global logistic and GAM regressions, as shown by goodness-of-fit tests and a reduction in the spatial autocorrelation of model residuals. GWR results revealed spatial regions in the relationships between cod and explanatory variables and that the significance and direction of these relationships varied locally. A k-means cluster analysis based on GWR t-values was used to delineate distinct zones of species-environment relationships. The advantages and limitations of GWR are discussed in terms of potential application to fisheries ecology.