Rainfall-runoff model parameter conditioning on regional hydrological signatures: application to ungauged basins in southern Italy

摘要

Parameter estimation for rainfall-runoff models in ungauged basins is a key aspect for a wide range of applications where streamflow predictions from a hydrological model can be used. The need for more reliable estimation of flow in data scarcity conditions is, in fact, thoroughly related to the necessity of reducing uncertainty associated with parameter estimation. This study extends the application of a Bayesian procedure that, given a generic rainfall-runoff model, allows for the assessment of posterior parameter distribution, using a regional estimate of 'hydrological signatures' available in ungauged basins. A set of eight catchments located in southern Italy was analyzed, and regionalized, and the first three L-moments of annual streamflow maxima were considered as signatures. Specifically, the effects of conditioning posterior model parameter distribution under different sets of signatures and the role played by uncertainty in their regional estimates were investigated with specific reference to the application of rainfall-runoff models in design flood estimation. For this purpose, the continuous simulation approach was employed and compared to purely statistical methods. The obtained results confirm the potential of the proposed methodology and that the use of the available regional information enables a reduction of the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff models in applications to ungauged basins.