On the correlation between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration climate change signals for hydrological impact analyses

摘要

State-of-the-art hydrological climate impact assessment involves ensemble approaches to address uncertainties. For precipitation, a wide range of climate model runs is available. However, for particular meteorological variables used for the calculation of potential evapotranspiration (ETo), availability of climate model runs is limited. It is preferred that climate model runs are considered coupled when calculating changes in precipitation and ETo amounts, in order to preserve the internal physical consistency. This results in constraints on the maximum ensemble size. In this paper, we investigate the correlation between climate change signals of precipitation and ETo. It is found that, for two medium-sized catchments in Belgium, uncoupling climate model runs used for calculation of change signals of precipitation and ETo amounts does not result in a significant bias for changes in extreme flow. With these results, future impact studies can be conducted with larger ensemble sizes, resulting in a more complete uncertainty estimation.