Application of wavelet-based multi-model Kalman filters to real-time flood forecasting

摘要

This paper presents the application of a multimodel method using a wavelet-based Kalman filter (WKF) bank to simultaneously estimate decomposed state variables and unknown parameters for real-time flood forecasting. Applying the Haar wavelet transform alters the state vector and input vector of the state space. In this way, an overall detail plus approximation describes each new state vector and input vector, which allows the WKF to simultaneously estimate and decompose state variables. The wavelet-based multimodel Kalman filter (WMKF) is a multimodel Kalman filter (MKF), in which the Kalman filter has been substituted for a WKF. The WMKF then obtains M estimated state vectors. Next, the M state-estimates, each of which is weighted by its possibility that is also determined on-line, are combined to form an optimal estimate. Validations conducted for the Wu-Tu watershed, a small watershed in Taiwan, have demonstrated that the method is effective because of the decomposition of wavelet transform, the adaptation of the time-varying Kalman filter and the characteristics of the multimodel method. Validation results also reveal that the resulting method enhances the accuracy of the runoff prediction of the rainfall-runoff process in the Wu-Tu watershed.