Multivariate properties of extreme precipitation events in the Pearl River basin, China: Magnitude, frequency, timing, and related causes

摘要

Daily precipitation/temperature data collected at 74 weather stations across the Pearl River basin of China (PRBC), for the years 1952-2013, were used to analyse extreme precipitation (EP) processes at annual and seasonal scales in terms of precipitation magnitude, occurrence rates, and timing. Peak-over-threshold sampling, modified Mann-Kendall trend tests, and Poisson regression model were utilized in this study. Causes driving the observed statistical behaviours of EP were investigated, focusing particularly on the impacts of temperature change and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). EP events, which occur mainly during April and September, are most frequent in June. At an annual scale, they are subject to relatively even interannual distributions during the wet season. Significant trends were observed in the magnitude, frequency, and timing of EP events during the dry seasons, although no such trends were seen during the wet seasons. Seasonal shifts in EP can easily trigger sudden flood or drought events and warming temperatures, and ENSO events also have significant impacts on EP processes across the PRBC, as reflected by their increased magnitude and frequency in the western PRBC and decreased precipitation magnitudes in the eastern PRBC during ENSO periods. These results provide important evidence of regional hydrological responses to global climate changes in terms of EP regimes in tropical and subtropical zones.