Green development system innovation and policy simulation in Tianjin based on system dynamics model

摘要

Taking the system dynamics model as the modeling technology and Tianjin as the research area, the DPSIR analysis framework is used to construct the Tianjin green development system innovation and policy simulation model. The model consists of three subsystems, including the economic population subsystem, the resource energy subsystem, and the environmental assessment subsystem. This study designed three policy scenarios, namely, the extensive-adjustment policy scenario, the economic transition priority policy scenario, and the pollution governance priority policy scenario. Taking the data of Tianjin City in 2018 as a reference sample, the simulation results of the city from 2020 to 2035 were obtained. The simulation results show that in the aspect of economic aggregate growth and urbanization, the economic transformation priority policy scenario is optimal; in terms of energy supply, all three scenarios show a negative effect; in the aspect of air pollution control, the pollution control priority policy scenario is optimal. In terms of carbon emissions and water pollution control, the economic transformation priority policy scenario is the best. According to the simulation results, this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for the reference of Tianjin green development system innovation.