Tree ring-based annual streamflow reconstruction for the Heihe River in arid northwestern China from ad 575 and its implications for water resource management

摘要

We developed two tree ring-width chronologies (Qilian juniper, Sabina przewalskii Kom.) for the inland Heihe River Basin in arid northwest China using a large number of tree-ring samples (217 samples/92 trees) with accurate information about pith offsets based on Regional Curve Standardization (RCS) and standard dendrochronological (STD) methodologies. Two 1422-year reconstructions of annual (August-July) streamflow for the upstream region of the Heihe River are presented. The STD and RCS reconstructions account for 53.4% and 57.2% of the actual streamflow variance during the period 1958-2006, respectively. Both reconstructions display considerable low frequency (multidecadal to multicentury) fluctuations, although the RCS based reconstruction is superior to the STD based reconstruction for retention of low-frequency trends. Low-flow years in ad 818-852, 1112-1196, 1453-1495 and 1680-1710, and high-flow periods in ad 868-1000, 1056-1094, 1228-1271, 1327-1440, 1510-1583 and 1877-2006 are detected in both reconstructions. Both the STD and the RCS reconstructions testify to the fact that the 20th century witnessed intensified pluvial conditions in the upstream region of the Heihe River in the context of the last 1500 years. The streamflow reconstructions are anticipated to be useful to water resource planning and management for the Heihe River Basin in arid northwestern China.