IS A BRIGHTER FUTURE WAITING FOR THE U.S. CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE?

摘要

This article uses cross sectional and times series data to forecast the U.S. current account balance and projects that the U.S. will have a surplus in that account in less than 10 years. This improvement will happen with the help of the energy sector; however, trade, service and income accounts will be also contributing. Both cross sectional and time series projections display a rather robust outlook for the U.S. current account balance. These predictions shatter many glooms and doom scenarios about the overreliance of America on Chinese capital to finance its deficit. By 2020, the U.S. could be in a position to actually finance the deficit of other countries.