OPERATIONAL RISK ANALYSIS OF INDUSTRIAL SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES

摘要

This paper develops a quantitative analysis of operative risk. We model the volatilities of major financial indices Chemicals Industry for the period 2000-2009. The model uses an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multicriterio technique, to identifying the weight of major financial indices: profitability, indebtedness, liquidity, efficiency and viability. Next, we set up an operative risk measure capturing the whole Industry indices. It becomes the risk measurement benchmark to settle level business risk by a membership function which qualitatively sorts as severe, moderate or low. The model uses time series analysis to predict industry ratios. We use a linear programming model and choose the method that produces the minimum forecast error. Last, we project ratios and their volatility. We use business information issued by the Annual Manufacturing Survey 2010, and information of the 5000 Money Magazine companies.