The Paris Agreement is in trouble. Here we assess the potential for climate leaders to bring the global climate regime back on track by developing a strategic understanding of followership. In other words, leaders need to know how to encourage other actors to follow them. We develop a typology of follower types-Enthusiasts, Pliables, Reluctants, and Hard Nuts-distinguished based on motivation and capacity. We identify the scope for a participation cascade based on the distribution of follower types. We argue that achieving a participation cascade may be more likely if leaders appreciate three insights from theories of collective action. First, break down the climate mitigation problem into smaller, more manageable challenges, such as sectoral approaches. Second, prioritize major emitters and areas with high mitigation potential and politically feasible action. Finally, emphasize co-benefits to potential followers. Together, the strategies can help reduce the number of Hard Nut cases by making the cost/benefit calculus more attractive to prospective followers. Climate summits have become festivals at which leaders talk about leadership. But leadership doesn't matter without followership. And that's the problem in addressing the climate crisis. There aren't enough followers. -David G. Victor (2019a)
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机译：巴黎协议遇到了麻烦。在这里，我们评估气候领导人的潜力通过制定对追随者的战略性理解，使全球气候制度带回轨道。换句话说，领导者需要知道如何鼓励其他演员跟随他们。我们根据动机和容量开发了跟随者类型 - 爱好者，夸光，不情愿饮巢和硬质螺母的类型。我们根据跟随类型的分布来确定参与级联的范围。我们认为，如果领导者欣赏集体行动理论的洞察力，那么实现参与级联可能更有可能。首先，将气候缓解问题分解为更小，更可管理的挑战，例如部门方法。其次，优先考虑具有高减缓潜力和政治上可行行动的主要发射器和地区。最后，强调对潜在追随者的共同效益。在一起，策略可以通过使成本/益处模数对潜在的追随者更具吸引力来帮助减少硬质螺母病例的数量。气候首脑会议已成为领导者谈论领导力的节日。但领导层无关没有追随者。这就是解决气候危机的问题。没有足够的追随者。 -David G. Victor（2019A）
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