Regional analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation indices for the Carpathian Basin from 1946 to 2001

摘要

Since human and natural systems may be especially affected by changes of extreme climate events, the main objective of our research is to detect the possible changes of intensity and frequency of these extreme events. Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for Central/Eastern Europe (focusing on Hungary) for the 20th century based on the guidelines suggested by the joint WMO-CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on climate change detection. These climate extreme indices include the numbers of severe cold days, winter days, frost days, cold days, warm days, summer days, hot days, extremely hot days, cold nights, warm nights, hot nights, the intra-annual extreme temperature range, the heat wave duration, the number of wet days (using several threshold values defining extremes, i.e., 10 mm and 20 mm), the maximum number of consecutive dry days, the highest 1-day precipitation amount, the greatest 5-day rainfall total, the simple daily precipitation intensity, the numbers of moderate wet days and very wet days, the annual fraction due to extreme precipitation events, etc. Therefore, daily maximum, minimum and mean temperature observations (from 13 stations) and daily precipitation amounts (from 31 stations) are used in the present statistical analysis. Our results suggest that similarly to the global and continental trends, regional temperature of Central/Eastern Europe has become warmer during the second half of the 20th century. Specifically, the strongest increasing tendency is detected in case of the annual numbers of hot days, summer days, warm days, warm nights, and the heat wave duration index. Before this warming period in the last quarter of the 20th century, most of the indices exhibit a cooling period until the middle of the 1970's. Furthermore, regional intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation has increased (as shown by the annual fraction due to extreme precipitation events, and the numbers of moderate wet days, very wet days, and very heavy precipitation days) between 1976 and 2001, while the total precipitation has decreased (as shown by numbers of precipitation days exceeding 0.1 mm, 1 mm, and 5 mm) in the region.