Decarbonization rate and the timing and magnitude of the CO2 concentration peak

摘要

Carbon-dioxide (CO2) is the main contributor to anthropogenic global warming, and the timing of its peak concentration in the atmosphere is likely to be the major factor in the timing of maximum radiative forcing. Other forcers such as aerosols and non-CO2 greenhouse gases may also influence the timing of maximum radiative forcing. This paper approximates solutions to a linear model of atmospheric CO2 dynamics with four time-constants to identify factors governing the timing of its concentration peak. The most important emissions-related factor is the ratio between average rates at which emissions increase and decrease, which in turn is related to the rate at which the emissions intensity of CO2 is reduced. Rapid decarbonization of CO2 can not only limit global warming but also achieve an early CO2 concentration peak. The most important carbon cycle parameters are the long multi-century time-constant of atmospheric CO2, and the ratio of contributions to the impulse response function of atmospheric CO2 from the infinitely long lived and the multi-century contributions respectively. Reducing uncertainties in these parameters can reduce uncertainty in forecasts of the radiative forcing peak.