Refined experimental design and response surface methodology workflow using proxy numerical models for probabilistic geothermal resource assessment

摘要

Numerical reservoir modelling is the most reliable geothermal resource assessment tool for quantifying power production at a sustainable level, but it does not mesh well with the Monte Carlo method for quantifying uncertainties. Building proxy numerical models using Experimental Design (ED) and Response Surface Methodology (RSM) workflows may provide a solution. The present study attempts to improve existing approaches through the use of the two-level and three-level Full Factorial and Box-Behnken designs. The improved workflow yields consistent results for both the Ohaaki and Rotorua geothermal fields suggesting that probabilistic MWe output distribution is between P90 to P10 of the widely used volumetric method.