Probability of success studies for geothermal projects in clastic reservoirs: From subsurface data to geological risk analysis

摘要

In the realisation of a geothermal project, an important step is the quantification of the geological risk of a well not achieving the economically necessary cut-off values with respect to temperature and flowrate/drawdown. In this paper, we present a new method for calculating this risk via a probability of success study by using all available types of hydraulic data, including porosity values derived from core samples or borehole logs. This method has been developed for geothermal projects in fluvial sandstones of the North German Basin but can be applied to any clastic, not fracture-dominated reservoir worldwide.