Construction of variance-based metamodels for probabilistic seismic analysis and fragility assessment

摘要

Finite element models used in industrial studies for seismic structural reliability analysis are in general very complex and computationally intensive. This is due to the important number of degrees of freedom as well as due to advanced damage models and failure modes that have to be simulated. In consequence, reliability studies are feasible only by means of simpler surrogate models able to represent essential physics. Then the choice of an accurate surrogate or metamodel is crucial for uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis. The construction of a pertinent metamodel is however a not simple task when random uncertainties, not explained by the model parameters, have to be accounted for. This is the case for transient seismic analysis where the ground motion, an intrinsically random phenomena, is modelled by a stochastic process that cannot be entirely described by a set of parameters. In this paper, we construct a versatile metamodel based on analysis of variance (ANOVA) decomposition. The ANOVA decomposition provides a convenient framework allowing both for parametric uncertainties and for stochastic variability introduced by seismic load. We then compute fragility curves and perform sensitivity analysis.