The application of GIS-based logistic regression for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Kakuda-Yahiko Mountains, Central Japan

摘要

As a first step forward in regional hazard management, multivariate statistical analysis in the form of logistic regression was used to produce a landslide susceptibility map in the Kakuda-Yahiko Mountains of Central Japan. There are different methods to prepare landslide susceptibility maps. The use of logistic regression in this study stemmed not only from the fact that this approach relaxes the strict assumptions required by other multivariate statistical methods, but also to demonstrate that it can be combined with bivariate statistical analyses (BSA) to simplify the interpretation of the model obtained at the end. In susceptibility mapping, the use of logistic regression is to find the best fitting function to describe the relationship between the presence or absence of landslides (dependent variable) and a set of independent parameters such as slope angle and lithology. Here, an inventory map of 87 landslides was used to produce a dependent variable, which takes a value of 0 for the absence and 1 for the presence of slope failures. Lithology, bed rock-slope relationship, lineaments, slope gradient, aspect, elevation and road network were taken as independent parameters. The effect of each parameter on landslide occurrence was assessed from the corresponding coefficient that appears in the logistic regression function. The interpretations of the coefficients showed that road network plays a major role in determining landslide occurrence and distribution. Among the geomorphological parameters, aspect and slope gradient have a more significant contribution than elevation, although field observations showed that the latter is a good estimator of the approximate location of slope cuts. Using a predicted map of probability, the study area was classified into five categories of landslide susceptibility: extremely low, very low, low, medium and high. The medium and high susceptibility zones make up 8.87% of the total study area and involve mid-altitude slopes in the eastern part of Kakuda Mountain and the central and southern parts of Yahiko Mountain.