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Spreading the wealth

机译:传播财富

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摘要

The volatility in the grain market is creating opportunities of a generation for savvy traders. However, not everyone has the bankroll to get involved. Spreads may be the way. In the last five years in the world of commodity resources, few sectors have moved as quickly into the mainstream consciousness as the agricultural and soft commodity markets. This is for good reason. Grains in particular have experienced one af the most significant rallies in the sector's history. What all traders want to know is whether the ag boom and volatility is here to stay or if it is about to fizzle. Indeed, corn ultimately may prove a victim of its own success. The sudden rush into corn-based ethanol, and the flood of hot investment money that went with it is showing signs of fading. Corn seemed destined to reach $10 - a price that many in the industry agree is not sustainable for the long term, at least not yet (see "Off the highs," right). The driving force behind such high prices has been demand, mostly from traditional feed processors but also ethanol. Corn-based ethanol created a fundamental shift in the demand landscape, and farmers have been planting corn post to post the last several years to take advantage of it.
机译:谷物市场的动荡为精明的商人创造了一代人的机会。但是,并不是每个人都有钱参与。价差可能就是办法。在过去五年的商品资源世界中,很少有部门像农业和软商品市场一样迅速进入主流意识。这是有充分理由的。特别是谷物经历了该部门历史上最重要的反弹。所有交易者都想知道的是,农业繁荣和波动是否会持续下去,还是即将消退。确实,玉米最终可能证明是其自身成功的受害者。突然涌入玉米基乙醇,随之而来的大量热钱显示出衰落的迹象。玉米似乎注定要达到10美元-这个价格,业内许多人都认为,长期来看,这种价格是不可持续的,至少目前还没有(见右图)。如此高的价格背后的驱动力是需求,主要来自传统饲料加工商,但也来自乙醇。基于玉米的乙醇在需求格局上产生了根本性的转变,过去几年来,农民一直在将玉米种植在后期,以利用这种优势。

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