To govern is to foresee: An exploratory study into the relationship between futures research and strategy and policy processes at Dutch ministries

摘要

The Dutch government has to operate in an extremely complex environment with various actors who have different interests, in a time that can be considered highly uncertain. Although this makes the usefulness of and need for futures research evident, the question remains how the Dutch government uses futures research in its strategy and policy formation process. This study indicates that the use of futures research by Dutch government ministries has evolved over time, although the overwhelming importance of the short term, the difficult structural organization of futures research and a relative lack of relevant expertise at the ministries limit the impact of futures research on strategy and policy.