Spatial risk assessment for critical network infrastructure using sensitivity analysis

摘要

The presented spatial risk assessment method allows for managing critical network infrastructure in urban areas under abnormal and future conditions caused e.g., by terrorist attacks, infrastructure deterioration or climate change. For the spatial risk assessment, vulnerability maps for critical network infrastructure are merged with hazard maps for an interfering process. Vulnerability maps are generated using a spatial sensitivity analysis of network transport models to evaluate performance decrease under investigated thread scenarios. Thereby parameters are varied according to the specific impact of a particular threat scenario. Hazard maps are generated with a geographical information system using raster data of the same threat scenario derived from structured interviews and cluster analysis of events in the past. The application of the spatial risk assessment is exemplified by means of a case study for a water supply system, but the principal concept is applicable likewise to other critical network infrastructure. The aim of the approach is to help decision makers in choosing zones for preventive measures.