DRIVING FORCES OF AGRICULTURAL POLLUTION CHANGES IN AN ADVANCED INDUSTRIAL REGION: A STRUCTURAL DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS

摘要

This study constructs a linkage between agricultural pollution and regional industrial development, and utilises input-output structural decomposition analysis (IO-SDA) to explore the driving forces behind agricultural pollution changes (nitrogen as a pollution indicator) within the period of 1990-2005 in the Ibaraki Prefecture of Japan to explain the incompatibility between the advanced industrial economy and intensive agricultural pollution. Not only the positive and negative factors in the course of regional industrialization for agricultural pollution reduction have been explored, but also the driving forces behind the demand structure, and influential sectors have been distinguished in detail. The results indicate that the advanced industrial economy could benefit agricultural pollution reduction but does not provide a guarantee that this reduction will occur. In the Ibaraki Prefecture, the positive factors can be attributed to the optimising production and consumption structure, but negative factors originated from the trade structure, and increased final demand levels were also notable. The export-led strategy of agricultural-related products in food industry was a critical factor to increase regional agricultural pollution. On the basis of the experiences of the advanced industrial region, the meaningful development strategy has been provided for the developing regions which are struggling for industrialization to prevent agricultural pollution from the original sources.