Demand analysis projections for recreational visits to countryside woodlands in Great Britain

摘要

Forests and woodlands have long been associated with tourism and recreation and there is a growing demand for improved planning tools to measure and maximize amenity value from policy intervention. Building on earlier studies, this study develops a trip generation function (TGF) to predict visit rates to public and privately owned forest sites in Great Britain. Using a zonal approach, the models were based on visit counts to 100 countryside woodland sites. A survey of forest managers was made to collect data on facilities and characteristics, and geographical information systems analysis was used to define outset zones and compile data on the population living within the zones and the quality and accessibility of alternative woodlands. A series of stand-alone TGFs were developed. In addition to size of population living within a 2-h travel time and substitute-site accessibility, the results highlighted the importance of the number of site facilities in determining visit rates. The results of a cross-validation suggest that the TGFs are sufficiently robust to predict visitor numbers at an aggregate level. However, the current value of this type of modelling to forest management decision making, and further advancement in modelling to allow transferability of results to unsurveyed sites is currently constrained by a number of data limitations, including the quality of available visit data.