Standardisierte Instrumente zur Kriminalprognose

摘要

One key methodical approach to scientifically founded predictions of criminal reoffence is based on empirical knowledge of offenders’ recidivism and factors associated with recidivism. By systematising this knowledge, structured risk assessment instruments render these experiences usable for predictive purposes. Based on them, individuals can be classified as belonging to a group of offenders with a known recidivism rate. These instruments are most common in English-speaking countries, but there is also a growing interest in Germany and they are increasingly being used for the drawing-up of expertises, in the penal system, and in cases of hospital treatment orders. The aim of the present article is to provide an overview of the instruments currently in use, assess their empirical proof of value, and to check whether they could possibly be applied to German samples. Next to traditional actuarial approaches, we included instruments for the so-called „risk-needs-assessment“, instruments for the prediction of violence, for the identification of specific high-risk-offenders, and for the prediction of reoffending of sexual offenders and juvenile offenders.