Surprises in wheat and corn supply-and-demand forecasts

摘要

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's January 2014 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates contained a few surprises that extended the decline in wheat futures prices but prodded corn futures prices higher at last week's end. The surprise in wheat was in the U.S.D.A.'s raising of its forecast for the 2014 carryover because of an unexpectedly large cut in its estimate its December projection and compared with 388 million bus in the previous year. The huge cut in estimated feed use easily offset a 25-million-bu increase in the U.S.D.A. forecast for 2013-14 wheat exports to 1,125 million bus. The bearish 2013-14 supply situation for wheat also offset the effect of a smaller-than-expected winter wheat area planted for harvest in 2014. The U.S.D.A. estimated winter wheat plantings at 41.9 million acres, down 3% from 2013. The average of pre-report trade estimates was around 43.7 million acres.