The ShakeOut San Andreas Earthquake Scenario: Preparing for a Catastrophe

摘要

The san andreas fault is like the sword of Damocles dangling over California, a constant reminder of catastrophe waiting in the wings. In a state so prone to a wide range of disasters that they seem routine, the thousand-mile-long San Andreas Fault remains the single largest threat. This fault flattened and burned much of San Francisco in 1906; it ruptured for hundreds of miles and severely rocked the land for nearly three minutes in 1857 (when Los Angeles was a little town along a river); and it's responsible for the 11,000-foot mountain ranges that account for the wind, rain, and fire conditions that cause other forms of disaster. Nowhere is the danger of impending catastrophe more palpable than in Southern California, where the southernmost segment of the San Andreas Fault has gone more than 300 years without breaking. This segment ruptures every 150 years on average, so it's long overdue for a very large quake. In the parlance of one seismologist, the San Andreas Fault "is 18 months pregnant."