German shipping's lost decade

摘要

Global markets are finally offering tailwinds. Even the escalating trade war between the United States and the rest of the world has not thwarted the momentum of the German economy, supported by world GDP and trade growth. Key sectors such as machine-building, automotive, chemicals, and plant engineering are all recording robust growth. Shipping and ship finance should be doing well also, given that the container and dry bulk markets have vastly improved. Instead, the erosion in the maritime sector continues. The latest fleet data by the German shipping and waterways administration BSH make for very sober reading. They show that the German-controlled fleet (under both the national and foreign flags) has shrunk to just under 2,200 units as of the end of July, down from about 2,500 a year ago. Sale-and-purchase activity has soared around the globe, while newbuilding investments have increased and demolition activity has almost ground to a halt. Everywhere else, shipowners and investors are raising the stakes, betting on an end to years of depressed, or at best volatile, markets.