Financial decision support using neural networks and support vector machines

摘要

Bankruptcy prediction and credit scoring are the two important problems facing financial decision support. The multilayer perceptron (MLP) network has shown its applicability to these problems and its performance is usually superior to those of other traditional statistical models. Support vector machines (SVMs) are the core machine learning techniques and have been used to compare with MLP as the benchmark. However, the performance of SVMs is not fully understood in the literature because an insufficient number of data sets is considered and different kernel functions are used to train the SVMs. In this paper, four public data sets are used. In particular, three different sizes of training and testing data in each of the four data sets are considered (i.e. 3:7, 1:1 and 7:3) in order to examine and fully understand the performance of SVMs. For SVM model construction, the linear, radial basis function and polynomial kernel functions are used to construct the SVMs. Using MLP as the benchmark, the SVM classifier only performs better in one of the four data sets. On the other hand, the prediction results of the MLP and SVM classifiers are not significantly different for the three different sizes of training and testing data.