Accounting for serial correlation and its impact on forecasting ability of a fixed- and mixed-effects basal area model: a case study

摘要

Successfully accounting for serial correlations has always been a vital part of growth and yield modeling when using repeated measurement data. In this case study, 16 alternative functions addressing the serial correlations of errors from a basal area model of black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) were examined and compared. Results from this study showed that functions incorporated into the fixed and mixed models to account for the serial correlations improved model fit. The serial correlation of the residuals from the fixed model with directly modeled error structure was significantly lower than that from the fixed model without a modeled error structure. For the mixed model, modeling error structure resulted in only a moderate reduction in serial correlation of residuals. The comparison of the fixed and mixed models with and without directly modeling the error structure showed that for fixed model, a substantial improvement in forecasting ability was achieved when the error structure was directly modeled to account for serial correlation, and when the forecasts were adjusted based on the estimated correlation. But for the mixed model, further modeling of the error structure to account for more serial correlation resulted in worsened or comparative forecasting ability of the fitted model.