Cross-scale modeling of storm surge, tide, and inundation in Mid-Atlantic Bight and New York City during Hurricane Sandy, 2012

摘要

Driven by high-resolution NAM (North America Mesoscale) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) atmospheric fields, a 3-D unstructured grid SCHISM (Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydro-science Integrated System Model) was applied to simulate total water level in the Mid-Atlantic Bight during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. The simulated storm surge, tide, significant wave height, and wave peak period results compared favorably with NOAA observations along US East Coast, Long Island Sound, and New York Harbor. The maximum total water level at The Battery in the New York Harbor was accurately simulated with an absolute error of less than 0.08 m (out of 2.9 m peak surge) and a timing difference less than 10 min, which includes the effects on the order of 0.1-0.3 m (5-10%) from the coastal setup induced by the surface waves. The scenario comparisons of (1) "NAM" versus "ECMWF", (2) "2-D" versus "3-D", and (3) "with" versus "without" wind wave model were examined. The 3-D barotropic model forced by ECMWF including the effects of wind waves performs the best, attributed to wave-induced radiation stress and reduction of bottom stress when the 3-D version is used. Simultaneously, the ELCIRC-Sub model, using a 5-m topography/bathymetry sub-grid and a regular 200-m resolution finite volume computational model grid, was developed to simulate the street-level inundation in New York City. The momentum and mass fluxes calculated by the coarser base grid model were effectively coupled with the sub-grid so that running a full-blown high-resolution base model is not required. The ELCIRC-Sub model uses MPI (Message Passing Interface) parallel computing to enlarge the coverage of the land surface and an efficient non-linear solver to improve the accuracy of the wetting-and-drying processes. The temporal comparisons of modeled water level with NOAA's tidal stations and USGS' rapid-deployed gauges showed overall performance with an average error of 0.1 m. Particularly, ELCIRC-Sub captured the profile of the highest peak surge (3.9 m), which rose 2 m within 3 hour at Kings Point, NY. The spatial comparisons of the modeled peak water level at 80 surveyed locations showed an average error less than 0.13 m. The modeled maximum inundation extent also matched well with an 80% hit rate against FEMA's Hurricane Sandy maximum flooding extent.