Time series models for short term forecasting of ozone in the eastern part of Austria

摘要

Ozone and several meteorological variables are monitored routinely at several monitoring sites in Austria. Enhanced ozone formation is mainly observed in the eastern part of the country, where peaks occur in the lee of the conurbation area of Vienna. The time series structure of ozone data within this area is analyzed by using autoregressive type models with an exogenous part (ARX) . In particular, separate ARX models for each time of the day, threshold ARX models for defined ozone regimes, as well as periodic ARX models are applied. The analysis of the estimated coefficients gives some insight into the dynamics of ozone and its explanation by meteorological variables. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.