EFFECTS OF ESTIMATES FROM DIFFERENT GEOCHEMICAL MODELS ON METAL FATE PREDICTED BY COUPLED SPECIATION-FATE MODELS

摘要

Coupled metal speciation-fate models are an improvement over stand-alone fate-transport models for accurately assessing metal fate and transport. These coupled models estimate fate-controlling partition coefficients using geochemical speciation/complexation models. Commercially available geochemical models are practical options for a two-step, loose coupling with fate-transport models. These models differ in their partitioning estimates because of differences in assumptions, databases, and so on. The present study examines the effects of differences in estimates from geochemical models on estimates of cationic metal fate using two geochemical models: the Windermere humic aqueous model (WHAM) and the minicomputer equilibrium+ model (MINEQL+). The results from each geochemical model were used as input to the fate module of TRANSPEC (a general, coupled metal transport and speciation model). The two versions of the TRANSPEC model were then used to assess the fate of five cationic metals (Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn) in Ross Lake (Flin Flon, MB, Canada; alkaline, eutrophic, mine impacted), Kelly Lake (Sudbury, ON, Canada; circumneutral, mesotrophic, mine influenced), and Lake Tantaré (Quebec City, QC, Canada; acidic, oligotrophic, pristine). For relatively soluble metals (Cd, Ni, and Zn), the WHAM and MINEQL+ estimates of speciation/complexation were similar for Ross and Kelly lakes but differed for Lake Tantaré. These differences, however, did not result in significant differences in overall fate estimates. Marked differences were observed between the WHAM and MINEQL+ estimates of partition coefficient, Kd, for more particle-reactive Cu and Pb that translated into the greatest impact on fate in mesotrophic Kelly Lake, in which particle movement is important for fate.