Evaluation of Nitrogen Oxide Emission Inventories and Trends for On-Road Gasoline and Diesel Vehicles

摘要

On-road vehicles continue to be a major source of nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions in the United States and in other countries around the world. The goal of this study is to compare and evaluate emission inventories and long-term trends in vehicular NO_x emissions. Taxable fuel sales data and in-use measurements of emission factors are combined to generate fuel-based NO_x emission inventories for California and the US over the period 1990-2020. While gasoline and diesel fuel sales increased over the last three decades, total on-road NO_x emissions declined by approximately 70% since 1990, with a steeper rate of decrease after 2004 when heavy-duty diesel NO_x emission controls finally started to gain traction. In California, additional steps have been taken to accelerate the introduction of new heavy-duty engines equipped with selective catalytic reduction systems,resulting ina 48%decreasein diesel NO_x emissions in California compared to a 32% decrease nationally since 2010. California EMFAC model predictions are in good agreement with fuel-based inventory results for gasoline engines and are higher than fuel-based estimates for diesel engines prior to the mid-2010s. Similar to the findings of recent observational and modeling studies, there are discrepancies between the fuel-based inventory and national MOVES model estimates. MOVES predicts a steeper decrease in NO_x emissions and predicts higher NO_x emissions from gasoline engines over the entire period from 1990 to 2020.