An Improved Approach to Estimate Methane Emissions from Coal Mining in China

摘要

China, the largest coal producer in the world, is responsible for over 50% of the total global methane (CH_4) emissions from coal mining. However, the current emission inventory of CH4 from coal mining has large uncertainties because of the lack of localized emission factors (EFs). In this study, province-level CH4 EFs from coal mining in China were developed based on the data analysis of coal production and corresponding discharged CH4 emissions from 787 coal mines distributed in 25 provinces with different geological and operation conditions. Results show that the spatial distribution of CH_4 EFs is highly variable with values as high as 36 m3/t and as low as 0.74 m3/t. Based on newly developed CH_4 EFs and activity data, an inventory of the province-level CH4 emissions was built for 2005-2010. Results reveal that the total CH_4 emissions in China increased from 11.5 Tg in 2005 to 16.0 Tg in 2010. By constructing a gray forecasting model for CH_4 EFs and a regression model for activity, the province-level CH_4 emissions from coal mining in China are forecasted for the years of 2011—2020. The estimates are compared with other published inventories. Our results have a reasonable agreement with USEPA's inventory and are lower by a factor of 1-2 than those estimated using the IPCC default EFs. This study could help guide CH_4 mitigation policies and practices in China.