Towards an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts of invasive forest species

摘要

Abstract: In this paper we provide an overview of an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts associatednwith non-indigenous forest pest species. This is a broad and important topic given the scale of ecological and economicnconsequences associated with non-indigenous species in North America and elsewhere. Assessments of risks and impactsnremain difficult due to complexities and interactions between the many factors driving invasions and outcomes. Thesenprocesses occur across various spatial and temporal scales, and are often influenced and complicated by human activities.nFor each component of an ecological invasion (i.e., arrival, establishment, and spread), we review general approaches fornmodelling the phenomenon and identify data and knowledge gaps. With the greater availability of various spatial data andncomputational power we suggest the possibility of linking the models for each invasion component into a more integratednframework, thus allowing interactions and feedbacks between components to be better incorporated into risk modelling ef-nforts. The approach is illustrated using examples from current work with Sirex noctilio Fabricius — a relatively new inva-nsive wood wasp in eastern North America.