Assessing human vulnerability in industrial chemical accidents: a qualitative and quantitative methodological approach

摘要

Iran as a developing country is experiencing the industrialization process quickly and is thus exposed to different industrial hazards mostly derived from chemicals. In the light of this problem, this study estimated the human vulnerability in chemical accidents using the software simulation of accidental chlorine gas releases. A mixed method (qualitative and quantitative) study carried out in 4 phases during 2015-2017 in Ray County, Tehran Province. It included a systematic literature review, software simulation, Fuzzy Delphi Analytical Hierarchy Process (FDAHP) hierarchy process study, and creating a reliable tool for purpose of this study in at-risk areas. The valuable finding indicated that decreasing the human vulnerability depends on both social and physical characteristics of area and even the social vulnerability indicators have more important role when compared with the physical vulnerability indicators. The statistical analysis revealed that the human vulnerability has the significant relationship with factors such as type of living place (rural or urban) areas, nationality, economic situation of households, the distance between housing and the nearest exit to main road, health centers, and manufacturing or storing chemical plants (P value < 0.01). The result also showed that the area under study is vulnerable from average to very high, both in its physical and social domains, against industrial chemical accidents. Additional comparative studies are needed to develop and generalize the appropriate set of indicators of human vulnerability to human induced disasters in Iran.