Modeling and prediction of future ecotourism conditions applying system dynamics

摘要

The ecotourism industry is one of the largest industries and has an important role in the economic social and cultural development of societies, especially in developing countries. Policymaking and planning procedures in this industry require the application of the methods that can appropriately model mutual and complex interactions and contacts. System dynamics is an accurate modeling method to simulate complex systems in a structured way and to design more effective policies by using these complex systems. In this study, the interactions and dynamics of the main components of ecotourism (effective variables) in the Taleghan area are modeled using system dynamics. To formulate and model simulations in the period between 2005 and 2015 was considered, and then extending the period of investigation, the model simulation was performed till the year 2025. Among the most important results of this study is the effect of the environment on the demand for ecotourism. Environmental degradation and the degradation of the quality of the environment lead to a reduced demand for ecotourism. This study predicts the future of ecotourism by this dynamic and designs a group of policies for the sustainable and comprehensive development of ecotourism on the basis of the behavior of the model variables in order to prevent the degradation of environment and simultaneously ensure that ecotourism demand is not negatively affected. Finally, the best policy depending construction to the state of the area environment was selected among them.