A typology of different development and testing options for symbolic regression modelling of measured and calculated datasets

摘要

Data-driven modelling is used to develop two alternative types of predictive environmental model: a simulator, a model of a real-world process developed from either a conceptual understanding of physical relations and/or using measured records, and an emulator, an imitator of some other model developed on predicted outputs calculated by that source model. A simple four-way typology called Emulation Simulation Typology (EST) is proposed that distinguishes between (ⅰ) model type and (ⅱ) different uses of model development period and model test period datasets. To address the question of to what extent simulator and emulator solutions might be considered interchangeable i.e. provide similar levels of output accuracy when tested on data different from that used in their development, a pair of counterpart pan evaporation models was created using symbolic regression. Each model type delivered similar levels of predictive skill to that other of published solutions. Input-output sensitivity analysis of the two different model types likewise confirmed two very similar underlying response functions. This study demonstrates that the type and quality of data on which a model is tested, has a greater influence on model accuracy assessment, than the type and quality of data on which a model is developed, providing that the development record is sufficiently representative of the conceptual underpinnings of the system being examined. Thus, previously reported substantial disparities occurring in goodness-of-fit statistics for pan evaporation models are most likely explained by the use of either measured or calculated data to test particular models, where lower scores do not necessarily represent major deficiencies in the solution itself.