Comparative Assessment of Climate Change Scenarios Based on Aquatic Food Web Modeling

摘要

In the years 2004 and 2005, we collected samples of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and macroinverte-brates in an artificial small pond in Budapest (Hungary). We set up a simulation model predicting the abundances of the cyclopoids, Eudiaptomus zachariasi, and Ischnura pumilio by considering only temperature and the abundance of population of the previous day. Phytoplankton abundance was simulated by considering not only temperature but the abundances of the three mentioned groups. When we ran the model with the data series of internationally accepted climate change scenarios, the different outcomes were discussed. Comparative assessment of the alternative climate change scenarios was also carried out with statistical methods.