Estimation of Water Demand in Iran Based on SARIMA Models

摘要

The generation of synthetic, residential water demands that can reproduce essential statistical features of historical residential water consumption is essential for planning, design, and operation of water resource systems. Most residential water consumption series are seasonal and nonstationary. We employ the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fit this model to monthly residential water consumption in Iran from May 2001 to March 2010. We find that a three-parameter log-logistic distribution fits the model residuals adequately. We forecast values for 1 year ahead using the fitted SARIMA model.