Residential preferences for stable electricity supply and a reduction in air pollution risk: a benefit transfer study using choice modeling in China

摘要

This paper uses choice modeling surveys from the Chinese cities of Jiujiang, Jiangxi Province, and Changsha, Hunan Province, to identify residential preferences for simultaneously increasing the stability of the electricity supply and decreasing the health risks from air pollution. Air pollution in China is mainly attributable to externalities associated with the electricity supply. We employ a contingent ranking approach as our choice modeling method and test for the transfer of benefits for these preferences between the two sites. The original benefit estimates indicate that the implicit price for reducing the number of power breakdowns is about RMB 83 per times × year × household in Jiujiang and RMB 78 per times × year × household in Changsha, while the implicit price for reducing the duration of power breakdowns is statistically zero in Jiujiang and RMB 71 per times × year × household in Changsha. From the alternative perspective, we estimate that the annualized value of the statistical lifetime risk of cancer caused by air pollution over a 70-year period is RMB 50,844 per year in Jiujiang and RMB 67,146 per year in Changsha. This suggests that we do not reject benefit transfer-ability based on the implicit price of the number of power breakdowns, but do reject it based on the number of deaths from cancer caused by air pollution.