MODELLING OF ATMOSPHERIC NITROGEN DEPOSITION EFFECTS TO POLISH TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS FOR VARIOUS EMISSION SCENARIOS UNTIL THE TARGET YEAR 2020

摘要

Biogeochemical effects to Polish terrestrial ecosystems resulting from atmospheric nitrogen deposition were forecasted until the target year 2020. To this end recently updated critical loads of nutrient nitrogen were applied and the nitrogen deposition projections for the sequence of decades from 1980 until the target year 2020, based on the Current Legislation (CLE) and Maximum Feasible Reductions (MFR) emission scenarios. The predictions were done by use of the Very Simple Dynamic (VSD) Model developed within the Working Group on Effects of the UN ECE Convention on the Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution CLRTAP. The calculations were done for three main forest ecosystems and three selected semi-natural ecosystems encompassing the whole territory of Poland with the spatial resolution defined by a grid cell of 1 × 1 km size. The study concluded with maps of CL_(nut),(N) exceedances and expected nitrogen concentrations in soil as chemical criterion, assigned to different eutrophication risk categories for each deposition scenario. The obtained results show that in spite of the realistic (CLE scenario) and extreme (MFR) nitrogen emission reductions until 2020, more than 99% and 80% of total area of terrestrial ecosystems of Poland, respectively, will be exposed to excessive nitrogen deposition. Results of this study as well as studies done on the European scale reveal that the nitrogen emission reductions determined by the Gothenburg Protocol are still insufficient and may lead to negative ecological effects including loss of ecosystems biodiversity. This substantiates a demanding need for the revision of the CLRTAP Gothenburg Protocol.