Assessment of energy saving potential and CO_2 abatement cost curve in 2030 for steel industry in Thailand

摘要

The master plan of energy management for Thailand iron and steel industry has been proposed by Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand (ISIT). Three plausible scenarios in the master plan were S1: without integrated steel plant (baseline scenario), S2: with a traditional integrated BF-BOF and S3: with an alternative integrated DR-EAF. This study investigated the potential of energy reduction and CO2 emission reduction in 2030 under two reduction target scenarios which were scenario A: to achieve ISIT'S plan and scenario B: maximum energy reduction. Moreover, the CO2 abatement cost curve and the sensitivity analysis of the abatement cost with different interest rates were studied. By following the baseline scenario (S1), the potential of energy reduction and CO2 reduction was 12.74 million GJ and 1.28 million tCO(eq). The traditional integrated BF-BOF route (S2) exhibited the highest energy saving and CO2 reduction potential, followed by S3 (DR-EAF) and S1 (baseline). The maximum energy reduction and CO2 reduction could be increased 11.8% and 17.9% from the ISIT's plan. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the change of interest rates (3.27, 4.27 and 5.27%) affected the abatement cost ranged from - 21 to + 24% when compared with the long-term interest rate of 4.27%.