Optimum hydropower potential study on nine Brazilian drainage basins using a numerical algorithm

摘要

The proportion of hydroelectric participation in the Brazilian electricity matrix stretches beyond 65% of total energy generation, reaching around 248 GW. Much of this comes from the Amazon Basin, where more than half have not yet been explored. With the objective of assisting the development of hydroelectric plants in Brazil and other regions of the world, this study presents a numerical algorithm constructed from Scilab(R) software to calculate the optimum power for a hydropower plant that maximizes net financial benefits. The algorithm was applied to 57 fluviometric stations in nine drainage basins from different regions of Brazil, enabling the assessment of all relevant parameters for energy generation and economic analysis of hypothetical plants at each station, as well as analysis of the total hydroelectric energy potential of each basin. Energy potential in the studied basins exceeds 2 GW, generating more than 27 TWh/year. The economic results were related to energy, which allowed for a series of discussions about the hydroelectric market in Brazil. Finally, a study was conducted on the correlation between potential and the geometric, hydrological and perennial coefficients of the hydrographic basins. The correlations obtained were not satisfactory since heterogeneous and geographically distant hydrographic basins were used.