Paris 1.5℃ Target may be Smashed by 2026

摘要

Global temperatures could break through the 1.5℃ barrier negotiated at the Paris conference as early as 2026 if a slow-moving, natural climate driver known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) has, as suspected, moved into a positive phase. New research published in Geophysical Research Letters by University of Melbourne scientists at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science shows that a positive IPO would likely produce a sharp acceleration in global warming over the next decade. Since 1999, the IPO has been in a negative phase, but consecutive record-breaking warm years in 2014,2015, and 2016 have led climate researchers to suggest this may have changed. In the past, these positive phases have coincided with accelerated global warming.