Air services at risk: The threat of a hard Brexit at the airport level

摘要

The potential impacts of Brexit on transportation have been discussed to some extent, mostly considering the economic shock as a main factor that would affect the volume of passenger and cargo flows. However, one should also consider the expected impact in terms of regulatory regimes. This specifically concerns aviation, traditionally a tightly regulated market that was extensively liberalised by the European Union. In this note, the worst scenario is tested. Namely, UK airlines would not operate services between or within third countries anymore, and non-UK airlines could only link the UK to their home country. This leads to the concept of 'vulnerable' air services, which are mapped at the airport level. The likely consequence is that a myriad of regional airports would be affected, especially in Poland, but also in various tourist areas. In addition, several larger airports and the secondary airports of large cities would be significantly affected, especially London Stansted.