Monte Carlo simulation model for multiarea generation system reliability studies

摘要

In a Monte Carlo simulation model and procedure for reliability assessment of multiarea generation systems a chronological simulation scheme is described which is capable of recognising different unit failure and repair distributions, different unit types, load forecast uncertainty and tie-line directional transfer capabilities and capacity distributions. Distributions of reliability indices can be obtained by taking advantage of a wide range of output data provided by the chronological Monte Carlo method. The proposed method is illustrated with simulation results based on two multiarea configurations created by connecting several IEEE Reliability Test Systems together. The results show that the proposed model can be an effective tool in multiarea generating system adequacy evaluation.